Around 10,000 finance jobs will be shifted out of Britain or created overseas in the next few years if the UK is denied access to Europe's single market, according to a Reuters survey.
Any 'Brexodus' from the City of London could be much smaller than feared. A Reuters survey of companies shows they've slashed estimates of how many jobs they'll have to move abroad after Britain leaves the European Union. It could be as few as 10,000 in the next few years if the UK leaves the single market, the findings show. As Reuters Andrew MacAskill reports, many estimates either side of last June's EU referendum put leavers at anywhere from the high tens of thousands to 200,000 people. The sector employs about half a million people in the UK. SOUNDBITE (English) Andrew Macaskill, Reuters Banking Correspondent, SAYING: "Well I think initially when a lot of those numbers came out it was lobbying, they were desperate to stay part of the single market and they had these very dire warnings about what would happen. And there was also in the aftermath of the vote, a lot of the banks hadn't done a lot of the really granular work, to work out how many people they'd have to move. Now we're a year on they've had to submit plans to the bank of England, they've had a much closer look at how many people they were going to move. And as a result we've seen the banks shift down, quite significantly in a number of cases, the number of people that would eventually have to move." Finance is Britain's most profitable sector and it pays the most taxes. Banks could be hard hit if they lose the EU passport that permits them to sell their services all across the European Union. SOUNDBITE (English) Andrew Macaskill, Reuters Banking Correspondent, SAYING: "It's clear that the banks are going to be the most impacted, then followed by much smaller numbers in terms of the insurance and asset managers. One of the other clear findings is that Frankfurt is going to be the clear winner, taking jobs, they look to take about half the roles, then followed by Paris and Dublin, much further behind, in second and third place." For now though, the new number will allay fears that London is about to lose its status as Europe's financial hub.