Don't expect stocks to bounce back until the fourth quarter, says Convergex chief market strategist Nicholas Colas.
Oil prices are up at source stocks with the S&P 500 edging toward 2000. Joining us live as reflections on the market. Chief market strategist at convert yet Nicklaus told us that welcome back fourth obsession for stocks in the last five days what's driving stocks that there's. Two things obviously in the first is waiting on the reserve and that's going to be sustained story teller 2 o'clock tomorrow afternoon. The second one is oil you know there is some relief Euro prices seem to stabilize the moment. And that's very helpful both obviously for energy stocks are available lift last couple days. And also for maybe. Reducing from the wars but struck from deflation in the US economy apples are so negative that second and at some point oil wells up more than 20% since late August. And he sent to bottom out you know there capsule is that hope and I just hosted a panel of experts and analysis on Friday. And I asked that question these are folks have been in the business 203040. Years and even with their expertise known ones on bottom. So there are not I certainly wouldn't tonight we just watched the tape here and goal is not to elastic thing twenty dollars a barrel possibly. But let's go to the Fed one day ahead of one day ahead of the day with the Fed on interest rates. What's your call. You know the basics are pretty straightforward. We're gonna see more volatility. Because once we get past the Fed decision one way or the other. Let's focus on corporate earnings and those have been pretty sloppy this year frankly down five to 10%. We're not going there hope for expect nice bounce until the fourth quarter so that a third quarter earnings season coming on the heels of the fact. Both of those together stole more volatility come with all of the earnings possibly hit by China. Yes we got a couple concerns obviously energy in the volatility there also interest in the China. But also our American consumers and respond to the stock market volatility but it's on the third quarter to that perhaps pull back will be consumer confidence consumer spend. That's the Fed's easy hiking rates two more or. AC 64 dollar question I don't think they're gonna go tomorrow. I do think you're gonna go in December. But I don't think anybody really feels that a lot of confidence would ever called me they could easily go tomorrow but the bottom line is way that you Raton. Things look forward to a right after. What's that disease the most affected by the decision or in this. You'll certainly financials really key sector. We see a lot of transactions in the financial treating us with temperatures of institutional investors who really wanted to be involved financials. But it might do so because they see steepening yield curve. Minority get that they want the Fed to move. So naturally going to be two overtime decision today. For the financial for the fourth quarter of whether or not the Fed does move at the number ones are pretty much what you see it financial entity but coming back a bit but. For the mark really get back to where was. You say is technology. Yes you know the issue varies and technology is the biggest and weeding and yes it's 20%. Financial is only seventeen and energy as it does speak counter point 7%. So if you're hoping for these people get back up on the here are 4% move. Doing technology to lead the way and the likelihood that it will. It better. And the bottom line is going to be fourth quarter earnings we think it has a chance of doing something that good consumer confidence and good business confidence the other technologies spent up in the fourth quarter. It talks positive here OK or we watching bring about things like thank you. Our thanks to it Nick Collison convert decks I'm Fred Katayama and this is.