May 15 - Rescue teams continue to search for workers trapped underground after an explosion at a mine in Turkey. As the death toll rises, Nomura’s Alastair Newton examines how it will affect political risk.
I'm Alastair Newton senior political analyst at Nomura international PLC. Do Turkey in the mining itself the first one has to excellent ones since -- in the midst of those wrinkles up in this tragedy. Victory is having an impact on Turkish politics aren't responsible. The government resign. Claims that the underlying Cole was that this stuff that's been on its isolation. All of the mining industry. Corsets it's that light just. Affliction. Of civil unrest to hit the country -- started off twelve months ago also with the guys that -- protest. More protests. Around. The scrap between. One administration. -- McCoy than us. Now we have strikes and sympathy for the money. Industry. I still think that this day. That's prime minister to what will most likely run for president in August and will likely emerges the winner of presidential election. Given the difficulties which opposition parties -- likely to unite behind a single credible and that it's about. People who. Precondition. See -- next challenge. Preeminence. It. But for sure all this but it's -- -- would expect markets. Would say that one more thing which is. I. We recently had a general election in Iraq the outcome of that election is still on. But it is very likely -- The current prime minister. He will have secured -- plurality but will have to from the Garcia with other policies to secure a majority it. Parliament has happened. There's a very strong belief that in order to -- support. It's. He will have to be prepared to rectify. An agreement already struck between Iraqi Kurdistan and Turkey. Which if it is approved by pact that would give Turkey significant. Beneficial access to oil and gas reserves in Iraqi Kurdistan. Cheaper and that she would mean a reduction in the current account deficit and boost that he's manufacturing competitiveness. Bearing in mind you crying on big -- quest for other sources of gas and oil it may well also helped Turkey's economy like bolstering it. Through transit fees going forward some experts believe that this could not 60%. All that -- current account deficit person standing around 5% of GDP over the course of the next. Given the importance with which ethics charges in particular view the current account deficit in my view. This would be of rights that that change what's -- when the question of who. Turkey's first. Electric.