The Tea Party has the most to lose in the aftermath of the government shutdown, says Stan Collender, a budget expert with Qorvis Communications. Collender says shutdown may unite moderate Republicans and Democrats into a voting bloc that overpowers Tea Party conservatives.
John Boehner is the weakest because in -- he had no choice but to go along with what he's caucus want to do. My guess and it's only guess is that when he's hoping is that the shut down convinces them that they've got everything out of it politically you're gonna get about trying to move on to blink. And other. Voters will go from being used this spectacle to -- them. To be frustrated at not being able to get the government services they want when they want you to -- To be angry that's when the politics of this all changes. I suspect that what's gonna be here if it moderate Republicans any good speaker the ones who supported him all you know when when -- -- this -- and it usually -- Lot more moderate Republican not Tea Party Republicans -- going to speaker and say we can't do this which ones are -- getting killed and artistry. -- if you don't work with us we'll work with Democrats to -- solution. From the start I thought it was wrong to pursue this policy. A threatened to ensure that our government down over the -- obamacare Peter -- from New York for example would be great example of somebody who. Wasn't happy with the shot. Who may very well just say to speak honestly with you up to a point but my voters start to revolt you know I've got to bolt the party I've got to figure out a solution it. The same thing could happen to marginal utility. Let's remember the Tea Party voters. You scheduled programs as much as everybody else -- drive on those responsible air traffic controllers they're Medicare recipients in many cases. They get small business grants and they do business with -- they are also likely to say thank you but you're not getting us anywhere you're actually Prius fix. Clearly there's a fight for the soul on people's Republican Party that is with the Tea Party trying to push them further for -- to the right. In 2010 a lot of people thought they'd gone to the right in 2012 will it be in the elections they move further to the right compromise. -- this whole move down and shut down debt ceiling is then further move to the right in the escalation effect. The interesting thing here is what happens if on the moderate voters. Independent voters and some Democrats who might have been fiscally conservative decides that the Tea Party is not who they are that they can't possibly support. What will happen under those circumstances as the Tea Party will. Still -- Paladin they're gonna they're going to be a lot of Tea Party folks in the house but they're importance maybe marginalized and these other people form. Essentially voting coalition unlike just like a parliamentary system. Democrats moderate Republicans. Conservative Democrats voting together on an overwhelming -- audiences. I still think that the odds of a default a relatively well that would 1520%. Say they've gotten this out of the system with each shot that if we didn't have shut down. I would be really worried at all the focus is it.