April 4 - It’s the tough U.S. response to North Korea that marks the latest crisis as uniquely dangerous, says Nomura senior political analyst Alastair Newton in part one of our look at country risks in Q2.
It's. Prefer prefer prefer prefer to prepare for for the professor professor. If. But the main difference for North Korea this time is not North Korea's behavior which is what most of the proletariat has been focused on. Admittedly. The escalation is more rapid than usual the typhoon has been harsher than usual but for me the real change has been in Washington. Washington has clearly he -- it. That's terror is not gonna work with the north Koreans and let's face it that's a lot of historical evidence to support that view and a bit of stick is required. Washington is a good answer. Not just in terms of the rhetoric. But also in terms of action. We. The problem with that. Is that with all due respect to the US authorities. Nobody can be sure how the north Koreans are kind of responses. In a world. Which North Korea and the US. What would have to say suffer from mutual misunderstanding. The risk of a miscalculation reminds -- -- -- -- invite him. On the north Koreans to an extent -- have painted themselves into -- cost rhetoric domestic precious. The environment in Pyongyang is changing it's not -- -- can -- who has a firm grip on power. An ordinary north Koreans -- it is well documents that have a much better knowledge of the real world outside in the Arab countries -- That was the case even three years ago. When I was Austin you know again. All of those things attitudes and precious. And it is possible it will alienate people by lashing out. If that happens it'll be interesting to see how markets react much were depends on the nature of the lashing out. If it's a repetition of something like that beyond the old artillery attack from November 2010. Markets may be able to shrug it off but anything more serious than that. Given that we know South Korea is committed to retaliation in the event -- North Korean strike. Looks like big and you sort of scenario for markets to cut with a potentially a very dangerous one.