June 1 - An exclusive Moody's report finds that, though President Obama will still likely win re-election in November, his chances will be hurt by May's jobs number and if things worsen it could be a toss-up.
I'm pretty stunning exclusively from Reuters -- the awesome President Obama winning the election. Are now -- -- as a stunningly poor US jobs report jolt to the world. And handed his rival Mitt Romney more ammunition we are joined on the phone by Moody's senior economist huge bang. -- can you tell me how does today's report affected the president's chances of winning reelection. Well there are two fold first of all. Today's first child grows reporting it's very disappointing to us. It's -- so -- trying to force costs so as a result. President Obama Obama so leaving channel has decreased. On the other hand -- -- ever. You know no we used to use. Change. That's most likely. Human laughter distributed to actually -- All you election -- probably still good -- -- That's so Obama wielding. It seemed to fully election. Partly because first of all the economy still recovering. And secondly. This is the -- admittedly peculiar year because -- up listening -- he's actually doing better than the national average. I want to ask you to now what states are keen for the president's campaign in light of some of these new analytics you look at. This intrudes. Four Florida. Ohio and Dan. You know although Virginia. I of zero a total roughly terms swing states. The key swing states. East Asia according to a all of us study. Would deal -- -- Ohio. And two Florida. Florida according to a projection will go full. -- Republican candidates at this moment we will ensure that -- B we're sure that is different. Probably Ohio or Virginia projected to go for President Obama. UCL economic situation deteriorates. They have president Obama's chances in these two states. We'll be Lola. What does the worst case scenario for President Obama here at this point. The worst case scenario would be you know let's he had double -- That's -- at this moment is duke. -- remotes. According to all the -- description. Into probably left -- five inch per cent probability. In that case President Obama may lose. Ohio and Virginia. I think if we lose. The presidency but he more likely. Scenario you know like a week. We can't tell -- trying recovery. Scenario. President Obama is stupid to being. Ohio it's just like to the probability has come down. Now you mentioned it's key in -- swings states what we see some economic deterioration. In some of those individuals days that you mention -- said some of them are doing better than the national economy but if there is a ripple effect and we start to see. A real weakness in those state and regional economies will that also played the negative scenario for the president. In fact according to all the current assessments. That the prosecution states. -- highly -- the -- is -- -- rather than the downsides. -- because or Hurley is very much exposed so -- to manufacturing. It also have a lodged exposure to. The Japanese. Common infections -- holder can't have a have a large -- protection from tea. Last year there was also doesn't show cops and army which interrupted his sixties. -- supply. If you don't if the pent up to about Katrina these statements from our. Then. We might -- stronger grows in Ohio has actually you being -- of President Obama. But in terms of the worst scenario that is more likely to happen in Florida. You know you see. The holding company continues. And you Zito searching it actually helps small look at -- President Obama channels over any of Florida we'll go further down. RH Shi -- from Moody's thanks very much I'm Rhonda -- this is writers.